This is a serious post. A really serious post. Not a tongue in cheek, have a larf type post. It is not a conspiracy post, although some of it verges into the conspiracy realm. I actually believe what I say and I provide evidence. The issues, events, incidents, whatever you want to call them, that I address in this series of articles are real. They are real things that have happened or are happening right now.

The Art of War in Chinese Thought

China is an old country. Really old, like thousands of years. They are proud of their history and rightfully so. They also have a long tradition of philosophical thought which continues to influence their society and culture today. Amongst these is arguably, actually not an argument at all, the most influential treatise on the conduct of warfare ever written, Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. To give you an idea of how important: it is still taught in all the world’s great military academies. Pretty astonishing for a book written 2300 years ago. There is no military officer – maybe in the entire world – that hasn’t read The Art of War.

The book itself is nondescript. It is relatively short, no more than 100 pages depending on one’s copy and translation. It describes the usual type of info one would think about when conducting war. How to move your troops, when to engage battle, how to use the terrain and so on. All fairly common sense we would think now, but probably pretty revolutionary back in the day. However, it also contains a number of more interesting ideas.

Sun Tzu understood that war was seemingly inevitable but also incredibly dangerous. It jeopardised the state and the ruling classes. It should be undertaken as a last resort. Victory should be attained in the shortest possible time and with the fewest number of casualties on either side, and with the least possible effort. He understood that war affected society in complex and always adverse ways; economic and social. If possible it should always be avoided.

And war wasn’t always necessary, at least not the physical kinetic warfare of the blood and guts type. The best type of war was the type that you fought when your enemy didn’t even know he was fighting a war. War could be conducted in such a way as to obtain your objectives without risking the lives of your military or civilians. Economics, diplomacy, and other means of statecraft could be employed to achieve this – think what we now call ‘soft power’. The United States has done this for decades, and Britain before it.

And even if this wasn’t completely successful it might give you time to develop your military capabilities while weakening your enemy’s. This would give you a better chance of winning a future ‘kinetic’ war.

Mao Zedong (Mao Tse Tung or Chairman Mao for you card carrying commies) understood this very well. While fighting his guerilla war against Japanese imperialism and Chinese nationalism he employed tactics right out of the Art of War, he also understood that these principles could be applied to a ‘cold war’ as well as a ‘hot war’.

After Mao left for the great re-education camp in the sky his successors continued this philosophical dalliance. In fact, they became even more enamoured with the idea of ‘cold war’ success. In the late 1970s China was a large country with a poor economy and basically an early 1950s military, supported by a vast conscripted ‘people’s army’ – in fact they got their asses kicked by the Vietnamese in 1979. Some historians even go so far as to claim that Deng Xiao Ping (Mao’s successor) used the war as an excuse to both purge the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of those opposed to his modernisation ideas while also demonstrating that China’s army was a bit shit. It worked.

China needed to get richer to both improve its military capabilities and to drag the population out of what was essentially an agrarian medieval society into the modern age. So, China began the process that has led us to where we are today, a not quite yet but pretty bloody close to a genuine superpower. I would actually argue that it is more powerful than the USSR ever was, but still not quite at the USA level of military capability, economic might, or diplomatic influence, but it is really close and the USA is just sitting back like an old man yelling at the clouds – Joe Biden might sum up American society more than we give him credit for!

One of the weaknesses of the Western political system is its focus on short termism. We have political cycles, three to five years, and politicians are assholes. Naturally, everything is done to ensure they get re-elected so they can implement their policies of getting re-elected the next time too. See the problem yet?

China, on the other hand, because it is a Communist one party state, and it is China – a country of immensity that is difficult for westerners to understand and it had five thousands years of continuous history (at least the Chinese like to parrot that line even if it isn’t quite true) – means that China looks at the world long term. It plays, as they say, the long game. Decisions are made for what is good for China (the country, not necessarily the people) in the long run, ten years, twenty, fifty even. And this is in keeping with the traditional Chinese philosophy of patience.

The ancient philosopher Lao Tze, a contemporary of Confucius living in the sixth century BCE, espoused the belief that one should be like water – you have probably heard the saying, Bruce Lee used it, but it was stolen from Lao Tze. Water is soft, but hard, it is malleable yet it can carve its way through rock. I paraphrase of course but that is the gist of it. Good saying. Very Zen.

It also fits with the Art of War. Sun Tzu uses this quote to demonstrate how one should act – be patient, be malleable, find your way around obstacles, and if you can’t, then carve a hole through the mountain – patience and strength provides water with that ability, so you too should show that – be like water as Bruce would say.

Understanding this allows one to better understand the mentality of the Chinese, not just the ruling elites. This is an all of country philosophical approach – and other Asian countries think like this too to varying degrees. Know your enemy as Sun Tzu preached. Once you do then you might stand a chance of fending off their assault!

China is playing the long game. But it is playing by a set of principles that we can understand. It is a rational and logical actor. It will also try to achieve its geopolitical aims without violence. Although it knows that it might need to fight, and if so, it will be on China’s terms. Very Sun Tzu.

In Part 2 of this article, I will try to explain why we are already at war with China.