As I write this Russian forces are massed on the border of Eastern Ukraine. Western governments and media are claiming an invasion is imminent. As in Crimea in 2014 and Georgia in 2008 Russian imperialism is about to flex its muscles yet again in what it calls ‘the near abroad’. Now, obviously, the past couple of years have shown us that Western Governments (actually all of them) and the media (all of them too) are perpetually full of shit. They are, as I like to put it, fucking lying liars. So, we take what they say with a grain of salt – it makes the shit taste better.

Nevertheless, let’s get on examining the possible lie. While Russian motives are clearly driven by old fashioned geo-politics and the age-old grab for resources there are more than a few subtleties at play.

Let’s have a quick recap of the first two ‘annexations’ – or attempted in Georgia’s case.

Georgia

Georgia was all about resource control. A major gas pipeline was being built to connect Central Asian gas fields with Europe, this was a loss of control over Europe’s gas supply that Russia couldn’t tolerate. So, they invaded. Russia was stopped by a combination of vicious Georgian resistance and NATO – I should know as I wrote the UK’s NATO response on the morning following the invasion, a rather shitty Monday morning task.

Crimea

Crimea was righting a historical ‘wrong’ and getting access to a warm water port. Crimea was only given to Ukraine as a ‘gift’ by Nikita Kruschev in 1954. In Russian eyes Crimea is Russian, always has been (or at least since the 1700s). It was simply an anomaly from the break-up of the Soviet Union, an historical mistake that needed correcting. Now one may argue that militarily taking over a bit of land that isn’t legally yours any longer may be a tad over the top and shouldn’t be condoned but ya could kind of argue that it is really is theirs.

Back in the USSR…

Oops I meant Russia. Now Ukraine is an interesting case. You see Ukraine is really divided into two parts, split almost right down the middle by the river Dnepr, a big river, really big, which extends from the north all the way to the Black Sea. A thousand years ago Swedish traders – what we would call Vikings, although apparently that was more of a profession than a people – used the river to travel to Byzantium and trade with the folks down that way. After a while they got sick of the travel and settled on the banks of the river at a place we now call Kiev. Although in those days it was called Kievan Rus. This turned into a rather large federation that we would now call Russia.

So, you see Kiev, the current capital of Ukraine was the original capital of Russia and the birthplace of the Russian people. Now during the Tsarist Empire and then the Bolshevik USSR that wasn’t too much of a problem for the Russians. It was still part of Russia.

The other people that lived in that part of the Empire were also Slavs but not Russian. They are the Ukrainians. They mainly lived on the west bank of the Dnepr, and the Russians on the east. Although the southern regions of Ukraine are also heavily Russian speaking – well that is where Crimea is. The map below shows the currently Russian occupied parts of Ukraine in a nice friendly yellow. The split between east and west is clearly shown by the Dnepr flowing through the middle of the country.

When the USSR collapsed it did so rapidly and with little concern for historical borders. Unlike their Slavic cousins in Yugoslavia who fought for years over little swathes of land based on ethnicity and history, the Soviet states simply took the land which had been the state borders within the USSR. As I said, not a problem when you are one country. This meant that shitloads of ethnic Russians now found themselves stuck in a ‘foreign country’. Imagine if California seceded from the USA and all the Mexican immigrants in Southern California decided they wanted to be part of Mexico again. That would be an issue.

Now Russia wants to correct what it sees as a historical mistake.

Defending the Indefensible

Now I’m not one to advocate for military force without good reason. I’m not defending Russia here. Simply pointing out that Russia has legitimate historical claims to Eastern Ukraine. But you know everyone has historical claims to fucking everywhere and sooner or later we draw a line and say ‘yeah your people lived there for fifty years three thousand years ago but ya know…well fuck you.’

If the Ukrainian Russians want to live in Russia, they are all eligible for Russian citizenship (in fact that is one of Putin’s excuses – the old Hitler ‘save all the ethnic Germans’ ruse), they can all fuck off back to Russia, it’s not like living space is a problem. Actually, regarding old Adolf, had he stopped at the Sudetenland and Austria then he would probably have got away with it – these disintegrating empires are a real bitch.

Ukrainian attitudes

I admit that I am not in fact Ukrainian and have never been there, although I did have some fantastic pirozhki at the Ukrainian Embassy in London once. On the other hand, I know a lot about history. The fact that so many Ukrainians fought with the Nazi’s against the Soviets suggest that maybe they weren’t that keen on the Russkies, certainly not those of the Communist ilk. The massive famine perpetrated on the Ukrainian people by the Bolsheviks probably didn’t help matters – the Holodomor as it is known is Ukraine is still being studied and was denied by the Soviets for more than fifty years; the least they could do was give them Crimea.

That would piss me off too. Obviously, Russian Ukrainians are all for annexation as they get to still live in Ukraine – which to be honest their family might have lived there for centuries – and still get to be part of Russia. Win, win.

Again, I come back to my shitty Mexican analogy. If you want to be Mexican, go live in fucking Mexico – I’m not picking on Mexican’s here – I love the food and a good margarita – it goes for everyone in the world. Celebrating one’s culture and heritage is great and everyone should do it – as long as it doesn’t involve human sacrifice and other bad shit, in which case you should rethink your life choices. It’s a great way to bring people from all cultures together, to understand each other and realise we are all just the same. Feigning genocides and other such shit to justify war so you can celebrate your national day in ‘your own country’ is a bit fucked up.

So why do it?

The West is incredibly busy fighting itself over COVID restrictions, gender, race, climate change, reality TV, and probably a whole bunch of other shit I can’t possibly comprehend or remember. This makes it less likely to care about Russians that want to be Russian.

China is also a big bad distraction. There is Taiwan for instance, a much bigger issue for the Americans given they make all the world’s superconductors, and China is getting quite aggressive. There is also the unleashing COVID on the world, the horrendous Beijing Olympics, and loads of other stuff like espionage, and paying politicians (and their children!). I could go on, but word limits are a bane of the writer’s life.

And finally, Joe Biden. The worst President in the history of bad Presidents is making things a little too easy for Tsar Vladimir. Biden is clearly non compos mentis – he’s mad as a hatter. Now I have enormous sympathy for people with dementia and other similar illnesses. The issue I have is that most people who are suffering such debilitating ailments aren’t President of the United States. If you doubt Biden’s problems you really need to crawl out from under your rock and look at his public pronouncements over the past year. He’s sick and he’s getting worse.

Kamala Harris – the Vice President – looks and acts more like a character from some sitcom about an idiot politician. She is simply a moron. Putin is smarter than both. In fact, I think he is smarter than all the Western leaders – although being able to walk, talk, and tie one’s shoe laces arguably makes one qualified to lead these days. Except Trudeau, I’m pretty sure Justin the snow board instructor wears Velcro shoes. Of course, I could be wrong…he may wear slip ons.

So, a double act of a mentally deficient President and village idiot Vice President in charge of the world’s foremost power? If I was Vlad I’d take a shot too.

PS. Since I wrote this obviously Putin has taken it upon himself to liberate the world from Nazism by eliminating as many Ukrainians as he thinks he can get away with. Bit of a shame. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian Government is full of corrupt puppets and neo-Nazis. It is quite the dilemma. Would be good if they both lost.

I also haven’t linked to historical texts, because the internet is a little biased. There are some great books on Russian history I suggest you read some if you are so inclined. This one is pretty good.